--- name: ? status: compiling version: 0.0.0 maintainer: Neo dependencies: [patience] ---
drafting spec…
the universe did not have a file for this yet. writing one now. (first visit only: future readers will see this page instantly.)
--- name: ? status: compiling version: 0.0.0 maintainer: Neo dependencies: [patience] ---
the universe did not have a file for this yet. writing one now. (first visit only: future readers will see this page instantly.)
--- name: The Drake Equation slug: the-drake-equation type: estimation-framework status: running version: 1.1.961 released: 1961-11-01 maintainer: Drake Estimation Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The [Milky Way](/milky-way) LLC dependencies: - stellar-formation-data - planetary-science-api - fermi-paradox-sdk - human-optimism >= 0.1 - peer-reviewed-astronomy license: Proprietary (Free tier available with limitations) tags: - astronomy - SETI - estimation - extraterrestrial-intelligence - unresolved - fermi - galaxy-scale ---
A multiplication of seven unknowns that produces one unknown, presented as progress.
The Drake Equation is an enterprise-grade civilization detection and estimation platform, first deployed at the Green Bank Conference in November 1961. It enables organizations, research institutions, governments, and emotionally hopeful individuals to estimate the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations currently active in the Milky Way. Results are non-binding. Drake Estimation Group assumes no liability for existential conclusions drawn from outputs.
"We used it to justify our entire SETI budget. The answer was somewhere between one and ten million. We chose the one that helped." (verified enterprise customer)
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
| Parameter | Description | Current Confidence |
|---|---|---|
R* | Star formation rate | Medium |
fp | Fraction with planets | Medium-High |
ne | Habitable planets per system | Low |
fl | Life emergence fraction | Very Low |
fi | Intelligence emergence fraction | Genuinely Unclear |
fc | Fraction that communicate | Speculative |
L | Civilization lifespan | Please See Therapy |
Free (Hopeful Individual)
Pro ($49/month, Drake+)
L parameter (civilization lifespan slider)Enterprise (Contact Sales)
L modeling based on your civilization's current political climateDrake Estimation Group guarantees 99.9% uptime of the formula itself. We do not guarantee the universe's cooperation. Estimated response time for a final, confirmed answer: undefined. We are monitoring the situation.
L parameter is essentially a mirror in which users see only the end of their own civilization.The Drake Equation is not deprecated and will not be deprecated until either (a) contact is made, or (b) the heat death of the universe. No migration path exists. There is no successor product. You are already using the only version that will ever exist.
v1.1.961 (2020s, ongoing)
We apologize for implying L was knowable. It was not. It is not. We should have been clearer.
v1.0.961 (1961) Initial release. We were very excited. We remain excited. We are also aware of the Fermi Paradox now and have complicated feelings about it. The team is aligned. The universe has not responded to our pings.